LeBron James is one of the best players ever - no ones debating that. He currently second in both PER and win shares this year, trailing only Kevin Durant. My model has him at forth - a dramatic drop off for one of the league's best players. Let's see how his game breaks down.
LeBron James is one of the best players ever - no ones debating that. He currently second in both PER and win shares this year, trailing only Kevin Durant. My model has him at forth - a dramatic drop off for one of the league's best players. Let's see how his game breaks down.
(Note: all numbers are expressed as a per game figure until the final PAA)
Shooting:
Drives: 1.56 PAA
2 pt Catch and Shoot: 0.06 PAA
3 pt Catch and Shoot: 1.09 PAA
2 pt Pull Up: 0.38 PAA
3 pt Pull Up: 0.06 PAA
Close Shots: 0.77 PAA
Overall: 3.91 PAA
LeBron is a dynamic scorer - one of the few in league to be positive in every shooting category. Most of his scoring punch comes from his drives, where he ranks in the top five of the league. Looking at the three point numbers it may be tempting to conclude that LeBron has taken way more catch and shoot threes than pull up threes, but that is not case. He's taking roughly the same amount, but on pull ups he's hitting 28% while on catch and shoot he's hitting 54%. If I were him, I'd try to avoid those pull up threes and take more catch and shoot threes, if possible.
Here's a bar graph of his shooting skills:
(Note: all numbers are expressed as a per game figure until the final PAA)
Shooting:
Drives: 1.56 PAA
2 pt Catch and Shoot: 0.06 PAA
3 pt Catch and Shoot: 1.09 PAA
2 pt Pull Up: 0.38 PAA
3 pt Pull Up: 0.06 PAA
Close Shots: 0.77 PAA
Overall: 3.91 PAA
LeBron is a dynamic scorer - one of the few in league to be positive in every shooting category. Most of his scoring punch comes from his drives, where he ranks in the top five of the league. Looking at the three point numbers it may be tempting to conclude that LeBron has taken way more catch and shoot threes than pull up threes, but that is not case. He's taking roughly the same amount, but on pull ups he's hitting 28% while on catch and shoot he's hitting 54%. If I were him, I'd try to avoid those pull up threes and take more catch and shoot threes, if possible.
Here's a bar graph of his shooting skills:
Rebounding: 0.5 PAA
A decent rebounder, LeBron grabs 39% of available contested rebounds. That's much better than the league average of 25%, but as he gets under four chances a game his score here is nothing special.
Defense:
At the rim: -0.23 PAA
Steals: -0.04 PAA
Total: -0.27
By my metrics, LeBron has been below average on defense. Before you say BS and tear apart my model, just look at the numbers. He's let his opponents score nearly 60% of their shots at the rim, above the league average of 54%. That's not good. Maybe it's because he's playing more power forward where he may be mismatched against other players, but he hasn't been very good at protecting the rim. He's also on pace to average 0.3 blocks - a career low. In addition, he's averaging 1.3 steals - also a career low.
Obviously, LeBron is a great wing defender, and probably does many things that help his team on defense. But looking at his rim defense and steals, he does not appear to be doing anything extraordinary.
Passing: 1.15 PAA
Proving what we already knew, LeBron is a great passer for a forward. How good is he? He's the only player in the top twenty for passing who is not a point guard. LeBron clearly brings value to his team with a lethal combo of passing and scoring.
Total PAA per game: 5.3 (5th)
Total PAA: 191 (4th)
The discrepancy in PAA per game and overall is due to Brook Lopez, who before he got injured was having a great year. Overall, I think my model does a fairly good job of evaluating LeBron. The biggest issue is probably on defense, where for whatever my model does not like him. If you have any insights on that, let me know.
In conclusion, here is a nice bar graph summarizing LeBron's input to his team so far this season:
A decent rebounder, LeBron grabs 39% of available contested rebounds. That's much better than the league average of 25%, but as he gets under four chances a game his score here is nothing special.
Defense:
At the rim: -0.23 PAA
Steals: -0.04 PAA
Total: -0.27
By my metrics, LeBron has been below average on defense. Before you say BS and tear apart my model, just look at the numbers. He's let his opponents score nearly 60% of their shots at the rim, above the league average of 54%. That's not good. Maybe it's because he's playing more power forward where he may be mismatched against other players, but he hasn't been very good at protecting the rim. He's also on pace to average 0.3 blocks - a career low. In addition, he's averaging 1.3 steals - also a career low.
Obviously, LeBron is a great wing defender, and probably does many things that help his team on defense. But looking at his rim defense and steals, he does not appear to be doing anything extraordinary.
Passing: 1.15 PAA
Proving what we already knew, LeBron is a great passer for a forward. How good is he? He's the only player in the top twenty for passing who is not a point guard. LeBron clearly brings value to his team with a lethal combo of passing and scoring.
Total PAA per game: 5.3 (5th)
Total PAA: 191 (4th)
The discrepancy in PAA per game and overall is due to Brook Lopez, who before he got injured was having a great year. Overall, I think my model does a fairly good job of evaluating LeBron. The biggest issue is probably on defense, where for whatever my model does not like him. If you have any insights on that, let me know.
In conclusion, here is a nice bar graph summarizing LeBron's input to his team so far this season: